Global Migration Futures

More Information.

Research objectives​​​

• Contribute to a greater understanding of the factors directly and indirectly impacting migration and, in turn, the numerous impacts  of migration on regional social, economic, and political factors;Prompt experts and stakeholders to play a key role in knowledge production;
   

• Generate debate with and between experts and stakeholders about policy responses to possible migration futures and raise awareness of the importance of broader transformation processes (such as technological change and changing public perception of migration) in shaping migration when formulating national and supranational migration policies; and
   

• Develop tools – i.e. scenarios – for policy makers, civil society, business persons, and researchers that increase understanding and awareness about future migration in Europe.

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Methodology and approach

IMI’s Migration Scenario Methodology is an innovative approach to examine potential future political, economic, social, technological and environmental changes at the global level, their consequences for migration, and possible policy responses. It does this through the development of a diverse set of scenarios, created through a series of systematic exercises with a group of international migration experts and stakeholders combined with conventional social scientific research methods.

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Unlike conventional futures methods, which generate projections or forecasts, IMI’s Migration Scenario Methodology is primarily exploratory, and seeks to identify possible future sources of structural change. Scenarios are therefore narratives that describe these future changes and their consequences for migration, and have no predictive objective. Similarly, when generating a set of scenarios, the research team does not aim to identify a ‘true’ scenario or a desirable versus an apocalyptic scenario. Instead, it sees each scenario as a laboratory to test out the effects of the evolution and interaction of different events on migration. In this way, several scenarios may have elements that we find are particularly important in helping migration stakeholders prepare for future possibilities.

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Scenarios are systematically developed stories that describe possible structural changes that we might observe in the future and their effects on migration patterns. They are not predictions or forecasts of future migration dynamics. Scenarios highlight that ‘business as usual’ is the least likely scenario and that we should be prepared for change. The global migration map will look fundamentally different in two or three decades, and scenarios are powerful tools to open our imaginations about such futures may look like.

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Project phases

The project is comprised of four main phases, which ran between 2009 and 2013. During these years, the research team constantly adapted and refined the methodology for migration research and sought the methodological expertise of scenario planning practitioners at the Oxford Scenarios Program at the Said Business School, Oxford Futures Directorate at the Smith School for Enterprise and Environment, and Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.

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Phase 1

In the first phase of the project, the research team carried out an extensive review of migration futures research as well as scenario methodologies, in an effort to combine the two strands and begin to develop a scenario methodology for migration. The team published two papers based on this research:

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• The concept and theory of migration scenarios

• A conceptual and methodological framework for research and analysis

During this first phase the team also gathered primary data by carrying out interviews with migration experts and stakeholders to learn what they perceived to be important factors impacting present and future global migration patterns, the areas of greatest uncertainty with respect to future migration patterns, and desirable and undesirable scenarios for future migration. We also asked stakeholders about the major constraints that limit the ways in which migration can be beneficial to a society and about how to minimise any negative migration outcomes.

Phase 2

In the second phase of the project, the research team held its first scenario-building workshop in The Hague in June 2010 and drafted 16 first-generation scenarios of future migration in Europe (Northern and Southern Europe), North Africa, and Asia. The workshop was hosted by The Hague Process on Migration and Refugees and involved 25 experts and stakeholders from across the world, with a focus on participants from Europe, and from different sectors in the field of migration. Scenario-building workshops were the main form of data collection for the project, as they consisted of exercises that systematically generated future migration scenarios and identified and defined future relative certainties and uncertainties. They were also the primary vehicles through which participants challenged their own assumptions about migration, enriched their understandings of regional migration processes, and became part of a network of migration experts and stakeholders from different sectors and countries across Europe and North Africa.

Phase 3

In the third phase of the project, the research team developed eight of the 16 scenarios into second-generation scenarios, after reiterating each step of the scenario-building process and conducting further secondary research, re-examining and amending the list of future certainties and uncertainties for each region, and releasing an online survey to more than 50 migration experts and stakeholders across the world and from different professional sectors to critique the plausibility of the scenarios and challenge any of their underlying assumptions. Findings from this process were published in an IMI policy briefing:

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• Testing scenarios with online stakeholders

The team presented the eight scenarios at a second scenario-building workshop in May 2011 in Cairo. The workshop was hosted by the Center for Migration and Refugee Studies at the American University in Cairo and involved approximately 25 experts and stakeholders, with a focus on participants from North Africa. Participants worked together to give feedback on the scenarios, re-iterate the steps of the scenario-building process, and participate in role-playing exercises to develop policy responses to potential migration futures.

Phase 4

The fourth phase of the project involved a more targeted round of data gathering through the organization of two expert workshops on the key issues identified in Cairo, to further enhance and finalise the project’s scenarios. The first expert workshop was hosted by the annual International Metropolis Conference in Ponta Delgada, the Azores in September 2011, and brought together 11 experts in the fields of demography, migration policy, environmental change, and technological innovation.

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Experts were invited to present on significant emergent trends and future uncertainties in their respective fields and reflect on their links to migration drivers and patterns.

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• Workshop briefing

The second workshop was convened in Oxford in June 2012 and focused on understanding the relationship between environmental change and migration, the implications for global migration futures, and the space within which policymaking might be most effective in preparing for such futures. The workshop involved approximately 20 scholars, policymakers, and practitioners from the fields of environmental and climate science as well as migration, who were asked to prepare research notes on how we could advance our thinking within this new area of inquiry.

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• Workshop report

The fourth phase also included an Oxford-based symposium on scenario methodologies in academic research. The symposium was a platform to present and receive feedback on IMI’s Migration Scenario Methodology from researchers and practitioners who have used scenarios in their own work, and to invite others to share their experiences using and adapting the methodology.

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Furthermore, the team expanded the geographic scope of the project during this phase and developed scenarios for the Horn of Africa and Yemen, in partnership with the Regional Mixed Migration Secretariat, and the Pacific, in partnership with the University of Waikato. In developing the scenarios for these two new regions, the team worked with its partners to carry out secondary research, implement online surveys, and convene scenario-building workshops with migration experts and stakeholders in the regions. In the Pacific, the scenario-building workshop was hosted by the Pathways to Metropolis Conference in Auckland. The project’s regional expansion enabled the team to understand the extent to which potential future migration drivers, trends, and patterns observed in scenarios for Europe and North Africa converged or diverged with those observed in the Horn of Africa and Yemen and the Pacific.

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Funding

IMI is grateful for the support from Boeing's Global Corporate Citizenship Program; the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office; the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs; the Danish Refugee Council; University of Waikato; New Zealand Department of Business, Innovation, and Employment; Australia Department of Immigration and Citizenship; New Zealand National Commission for UNESCO; and the Oxford Martin School.

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Partners

MobileWelfare is a partnership of four institutions:

• Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Netherlands

• International Migration Institute, University of Oxford, UK

• Centre of Migration Research, University of Warsaw, Poland

• Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisbon, Portugal

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Regions - North Africa and Europe

First Component

The GMF team reviewed social scientific literature in the fields of economics, political economy, demography, geography, development studies, anthropology and sociology. We then developed a conceptual framework and a model of the social, cultural, economic and demographic factors that drive international migration in both sending and receiving countries. We derived hypotheses from this framework using qualitative analysis of existing data and research on drivers of migration.

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Second Component

We carried out individual interviews with scholars and non-academic stakeholders from governments, international organisations, businesses and civil society organisations, who have insight into and hold expertise on issues directly and indirectly related to migration. The research team will maintain a continuous dialogue with stakeholders until the project's completion. This allows us to develop scenarios that i) are credible, ii) shed light on the critical uncertainties of the future,and iii) are relevant to those working on migration issues.

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We used semi-structured interviews with over 30 stakeholders between October 2009 and January 2010. Questions covered the areas of greatest uncertainty with respect to international migration, desirable and undesirable future migration scenarios, and important lessons for the future. We asked stakeholders about the major constraints that limit the ways in which migration can be beneficial to a society and about how to minimise any negative migration outcomes.

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The team compiled, analysed and clustered the interview data along key themes. We prepared a paper summarising the responses, and distributed it to the interviewees as well as participants at GMF’s first scenario-building workshop.

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Third Component

We organised three workshops with scholars and non-academic migration stakeholders. At the first two workshops we developed scenarios on future international migration in North Africa and Europe, and at the third workshop we examined key issues for future international migration that deserve further targeted research. Our aim has been to prompt stakeholders to be active contributors in the production of knowledge, as well as ‘users’ of scenarios in their future work.

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The structure of the workshops has encouraged stakeholders to use information from their daily work. For policy makers, this approach is helpful in responding to major future shifts in global migration patterns as well as the factors driving these processes. For academics, this experience may increase awareness of future lines of investigation that have so far remained overlooked. For individuals working in the private sector, this knowledge might enhance their capacity to serve migrant needs in the future.

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• GMF Workshop 1: The Hague (June 2010)

• GMF Workshop 2: Cairo (May 2011)

• GMF Workshop 3: The Azores (September 2011)

Fourth Component

We created and disseminated an online survey to gather feedback on the North African and European migration scenarios under development. This allowed us to reach out to a large number of individuals from different professional backgrounds and geographic locations with expertise in migration policy and research. The findings of the survey were summarised in a policy brief and discussed during the second workshop in Cairo.

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Regions - Horn of Africa and Yemen

First Component

Collect, compile, and analyse existing data and social scientific literature on migration drivers, patterns and trends in the Horn of Africa and Yemen from the fields of economics, politics, demography, geography, development studies, anthropology and sociology. Develop preliminary migration megatrends and uncertainties for both sending and receiving countries in the region.

Second Component

Disseminate an online survey to scholars and non-academic stakeholders from governments, international organisations, businesses and civil society organisations, who have insight into and expertise on issues related to migration in the region. The survey will ask respondents about past, present, and potential future drivers and patterns of migration in the Horn of Africa and Yemen. It will help to establish a baseline of the currently held beliefs on regional migration dynamics as well as the perceived opportunities and challenges associated with migration. Insights from the survey and background research will contribute to the publication of a policy brief and to discussions during the stakeholders workshop.

Third Component

Convene a stakeholders workshop in Nairobi with 25 experts from governments, international organisations, businesses and civil society organisations, working on issues related to migration in the region. Stakeholders will use information from their daily work as well as their broader knowledge of global processes and changes that may affect the region and collaborate to develop scenarios on future migration in the Horn of Africa and Yemen. The workshop will prompt stakeholders to be active contributors to the production of knowledge as well as 'users' of scenarios in their future work.

For policy makers, this approach is helpful in responding to major future shifts in global migration patterns as well as the factors driving these processes. For academics, this experience may increase awareness of future lines of investigation that have so far remained overlooked. For individuals working in the private sector, this knowledge might enhance their capacity to serve migrant needs in the future.

Fourth Component

Compile and analyse workshop data alongside online survey data and background research to further develop scenarios for the Horn of Africa and Yemen. Produce a final report on the project’s insights for future international migration in the region.

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Regions - Pacific region

First Component

The GMF team completed background research on past, present, and potential future migration drivers and patterns in the Pacific. The primary background document for the project is Richard Bedford and Graeme Hugo’s 2012 report entitled ‘Population Movement in the Pacific: A perspective on future prospects’. In addition to reviewing the academic and policy literature, the team also analysed the available data on socio-economic and demographic drivers of migration in the region, to identify preliminary relative certainties and possible assumptions about the future in advance of working with the project’s Pacific migration experts and stakeholders.

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Second Component

Selected migration experts and stakeholders to participate in an online survey about future migration in the Pacific and a scenario-building workshop. Participants were selected to ensure a balance according to gender and geographic and thematic area of expertise, as well as representing a range of sectors, including businesses/private sector employers, governments and policymakers, civil society, and international organizations.

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The objective of the survey was to learn what migration experts and stakeholders perceived would be significant factors in facilitating, constraining and shaping Pacific migration patterns in the future. Additionally, the survey enabled the research team to learn what respondents believed to be likely and unlikely scenarios for future migration. This information assisted the research team in structuring the scenario-building workshop, gaining insight into what experts and stakeholders assumed about the future of the region, and helping respondents who also participated in the workshop to compare their before-and-after approaches to futures thinking about Pacific migration.

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Third component

Organised a scenario-building workshop in late October 2012 that included approximately 30 migration experts and stakeholders. The workshop was the main form of data collection for the project. It resulted in a series of future migration scenarios and a list of relative certainties and uncertainties about the future, as well as enabled migration experts and stakeholders to challenge their own assumptions about migration and enhance their understanding about Pacific migration processes.

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Fourth component

The final phase of the project involved the analysis of the data obtained from the workshop, the refining of the first-generation scenarios, and multiple in person and online feedback rounds with workshop participants. Participants’ feedback was highly valuable to the process of scenario-building for it afforded participants the chance to return to the scenarios, relative certainties, and uncertainties and inform the research team of any further considerations, changed positions, insights gained, or new questions that may have arisen since the scenarios were created.