Preaching to the Choir: The Impact of Restrictive Migration Policies and Information Campaigns on Aspirations to Migrate

To what extent do restrictive migration policies and information campaigns about the dangers of irregular migration shape people’s aspirations to migrate? While destination states in the Global North increasingly seek to stop and discourage irregular migration through securitized and externalized policies alongside campaigns raising awareness about the risks of irregular routes, the extent to which these achieve their goal of depressing migration aspirations remains largely unknown. Building upon frameworks regarding migration “drivers” and “aspirations and capabilities,” we argue that migration aspirations are primarily shaped by contextual and personal circumstances, while policies and information about risks play only a secondary role. Their impact will therefore depend upon people’s prior aspirations: those with strong desires to migrate will be undeterred by policies and information, while those committed to staying will be reinforced in their decision to remain. Only a marginal group of undecided individuals may be influenced by policies and information, and primarily towards avoiding irregular pathways rather than abandoning migration altogether. We test this conceptual model empirically through 243 semi-structured interviews of longstanding residents across six localities in Algeria (Mostaganem and Sétif), Ethiopia (Adama and Kebri Beyah), and Nigeria (Abuja and Osogbo). Our findings support the framework: the stronger one’s aspirations to migrate, the less likely that policies and information campaigns dampen people’s desires or influence their thinking. Overall, our results suggest that current policies and information campaigns aimed at deterrence largely fail to achieve their stated objective of significantly reducing migration aspirations.