Social Transformation, Social Protection, and (Im)mobility Aspirations in Six African Cities

How do urban and economic expansions shape people’s (im)mobility aspirations (i.e., the desire to stay in a locality or migrate elsewhere)? By comparing similar processes of social transformation in six African cities (Mostaganem and Sétif (in Algeria), Adama and Kebri Beyah (in Ethiopia) and Abuja and Osogbo (in Nigeria), we demonstrate how economic development and urban growth are perceived by longstanding local residents and influence their desires to stay or leave their homes. We first explore how residents understand and experience shifts in social protection and their ability to achieve what they believe to be a ‘good life’ given changes to their urban environments. We then analyze how these perceptions and interpretations shape (im)mobility aspirations. Through a comparative qualitative content analysis of 120 semi-structured interviews and a descriptive quantitative analysis of 244 survey responses collected in the six cities, we identify both similarities and variation in how residents perceive urban and economic transformation, how it impacts their livelihoods and well-being, how it shapes what they value, and, ultimately, how it influences their (im)mobility aspirations. We find that the pace of socio-economic development shapes residents’ understanding of social protection, what ‘the good life’ means, and what they can reasonably expect in the future in situ or through migration. Aspirations to migrate are strongest when local conditions do not permit people to achieve what they have come to value. By contrast, aspirations to stay tend to dominate when they can achieve a fulfilling life locally, or when uncertainty about their ability to do so leads them to adopt a ‘wait and see’ attitude. The perceived and expected pace of change, the economic models adopted, and the migration histories of local populations all shape perceptions of economic and urban dynamism, social welfare, and (im)mobility aspirations.